Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
